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Analysis and Future Considerations on Increasing Chinese Travelers and International Travel & Human Logistics Market (1)②

公開日: : 最終更新日:2017/02/04 Human LOGISTICS

Ⅲ HUMAN LOGOSTICS in the Far East region
1 Far Eastern Region where intra-regional human logistics become active

The per capita GDP growth rate in the Far East from 2003 to 2015 is remarkable, of which mainland China has grown more than 6 times (Table 2-1).
 
 
As a result, the number of travelers who crossed the border in the Far East region in 2015 increased to about 5 times compared to 2003, about 50% higher than 2010, among which the number of travelers in the Far East region The increase in the number of border (border) residents (mainly attributable to Japan) of mainland residents of China is remarkable. On the other hand, Japan, which has reduced GDP per capita in dollar terms, has also declined in the same way in the number of departing people, reducing the “human power” and “traveling main power” that Japan once owned (Table 2-2).
 
When the number of outbound and inbound travelers in the Far East region in 2015 is outlined for each country and region (Table 2-3), it is obvious that the immigration (border) rate of Macao and Hong Kong with less population comes out extremely come. In terms of departure (border) rate, Hong Kong is also 1.43 (Macao is uncounted). As the mainland of China has a huge population, the departure (border) rate is less than 10%, but it is the world’s absolute number. Japan has a slight decrease in the departure rate reflecting economic conditions, but the immigration (border) rate is in reverse order.
In terms of departure (border) rate, Hong Kong and Taiwan became comparable to the European level. South Korea is becoming the departure rate comparable to that of major European countries, but Japan’s departure rate is low from the international level. Although the immigration rate has been rising rapidly, the fact that the mainland residents of China are increasingly traveling abroad has greatly contributed.
When looking at the mutual flow among regions in the Far East region (Table 2-4), the departure (border) statistics and the entry (border) statistics do not necessarily match. This is because there are a plurality of statistics taking methods corresponding to the purpose as described above. When grasping the number of inbounds in Mainland China and Special Administrative Region (SAR) Hong Kong and Macao, the number of day trip customers aiming for parallel trading etc. is huge. For this reason, statistics complying with the 24 hour rule which is the definition of UNWTO can not grasp the actual situation. Table 2-4 The upper row basically uses the statistics including the day-returning guests of the arrival place, and the lower row of Table 2-4 is based on the accommodation data. Japan, South Korea, etc. There are also places where the day return visits are vague, so accurate comparison is difficult. However, as the overwhelming majority of the human population between Mainland China and Hong Kong and Macao is large, there is no obstacle to global recognition.
 
The number of international travelers to Japan has increased (Table 1-1), the 11 million people who increased the number of international travelers from the Far East region contributed largely. Moreover, in the past five years, it is understood that China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea both change to exceed the number of Japanese international travelers. It seems that the increase in GDP of these countries, the reduction of airfare cost, the lowering of travel expenses such as the yen depreciation effect are largely contributing. However, it is not an increase in the two-way direction, except for Taiwan, the number of Japanese international travelers has decreased by the total number.
2 Chinese tourists moving the world
(1) Spring Festival and others to move tourist spots around the world

The total number of Chinese mainland residents who traveled abroad including Hong Kong and Macao (returning to Japan) in 2015 is about 120 million, more than doubling in the past five years. Even if viewed on a global scale using the UNWTO standard, one out of ten people traveling abroad is calculated to become a mainland resident of China. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the number of residents in Mainland China who visited Australia in 2015 is 1 million people, its total consumption amounted to about 5.1 billion US $, and the goal that was supposed to take 10 years at first It is achieved in 5 years. Apart from Hong Kong and Macau, the number of guests from mainland China exceeding 1 million people was 8 in 2011, Euro-monitor forecast increased to 14 places, the world’s largest travel It becomes a supply area for people.
The impact of the increase in the number of travelers of mainland Chinese residents to sightseeing spots throughout the world as well as in Japan was significant (Table 2-5) in 2015. The factor analysis said that China Travel Agency lies in personal income growth, visa easing, increased flight departure and arrival at international flights and advantage of RMB rate. Eighteen years have passed since the Chinese government promulgated and enforced the “Chinese Citizens’ Self-Exit Travel Control Interim Rules” in 1997. In 1998, the number of tourists outside the Chinese mainland resident country (border) was only 8 million, but exceeded 80 million in 2012 and 100 million in 2014 Day return). Although Hong Kong and Macao share a high percentage, Europe is also dominant in the region, while the United States also has a high proportion of Canada and Mexico.
Table 2-6 shows the top view of the city visited by mainland residents of China in 2013. At this time there were still few major European cities where Chinese mainland residents are longing for.
In Japan, the increase and decrease of human logistics such as large consecutive holidays are requested on the day-of-week arrangement, but that era will be over. An era has already come when the Chinese holiday system has a great influence on tourist destinations around the world. The time period during which the population of mainland Chinese residents increases will be Spring Festival (Chinese New Year 7 consecutive holidays), labor clause (May Day triple holiday) National Day (7 consecutive holidays), etc. The Dragon Boat Festival will be more active in the southern part of the continent. It will be time to surpass Christmas and Halloween. Ching Ming Festival (about April 5 th) etc. The festival in China changes every year in the lunar calendar. The travel industry etc. in the solar calendar world will also have to cope with the change.

2) Consumer Behavior of Visitors from Mainland China ~ frantically shopping ~

The expenditure of travelers coming from mainland China rose sharply from US $ 59 billion in 2008 to US $ 164 billion in 2014 and to about 2150 US dollars by 2015. It is a sharp rise of 53% over 2014 compared with the Middle East Qatar’s annual GDP.

While the global economy is unlikely to recover, the tourism industry has developed, creating employment and business in many countries, securing export income and building the infrastructure. Countries around the world are raging on acquiring visitors from mainland China with a large number of purchasing power.The proportion of shopping accounted for travel expense outside the country (border) of mainland China residents is about 60% or so, which is high.Because this includes travelers for parallel trading purposes, it may not represent the tourist’s shopping ratio.Even though it can be inferred that the shopping ratio is high.In the data of Hawaii in 2014, the daily shopping expenditures of Canadian residents and Japanese residents were 15US $ and 78US $, respectively, whereas the mainland residents of China were prominently as large as 183US $.According to the statistics of the Korea Tourism Organization, the economic effect that the mainland Chinese resident traveler gave to Korea reached US $ 22 billion, accounting for about 1.6% of Korea’s GDP. However, consumption behavior differs by country. The consumption of foreign guests in Germany is higher than that of Arab, Australia and Japanese residents over visitors from mainland China. Japanese residents outnumber visitors from Mainland China even in the amount of foreigners consumed in Taiwan. It is not necessarily a large amount of consumption in all areas, there are reasons for it, it may be the result of reflecting the mainland’s consumer policy.

In the mass communication, the consumption behavior of visitors from the mainland of China is represented with the phrase “banquet” (frantically shopping). It is probably that the image of the mainland residents of China comes from the prejudice of low-income people not expressing that Arab and Japan are explosive. According to China Travel Agency analysis “China Outbound Tourism in 2013”, self-arrangement is increasing for Chinese travelers (75% of visits to Thailand in 2013 are self-arranging, 80% of visits to Hong Kong are self-arranging ). Self-arranging Travelers’ consumption behavior is generally modest, so it will be that they will not be consuming as much as they are used to traveling.
The Chinese government’s National Travel Agency said, “In 2020, China’s per capita GDP is expected to exceed 10,000 US dollars, the need for travel consumption explosively increases and greatly boosts the development of the industry,” the average of Chinese citizens The number of times of traveling, the total travel expenditure, etc. will be doubled in 2015 “.

(3) Vigorous domestic travel demand of overseas travel reserve forces
The scale of domestic travel within mainland China is also extraordinarily large. According to the “2016 National Travel Assessment Report” announced by the travel travel network (seat lips), the travel and tourism expenditure of the Chinese (2016) is RMB 4, 660 billion, the average person average is RMB 3406 It is 6900 yen). It is about three times the amount of tourism consumption in Japan and it is larger than the ratio of GDP. He traveled 3.3 times per person, which is the same as the domestic travel of the Japanese, but since the scale of the country is different, travel preference is higher than Japanese.
The departure rate of Aomori, Akita and Iwate prefecture is less than 3.7%, which is lower than the departure (boundary) rate of 8.7% including day trips of mainland residents of China, but for one person’s GDP (nominal) It is more than triple. On the other hand, Okinawa Prefecture, Kagoshima Prefecture, Kumamoto Prefecture and Nagasaki Prefecture are fewer than GDP per capita in the Tohoku three prefectures, but the departure rate is higher. It is affected by the maintenance of international flight route. In Okinawa Prefecture, which has the lowest per capita GDP in the country, the departure rate exceeds each prefecture of Kyushu, 6.6%, but the outbound rate of mainland residents in China is even higher. Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc. in the Pearl River Delta Zone, Hong Kong and the region forming a daily traffic zone with Macao are the same as the income levels in Kyushu and the Tohoku region. Also in Table 2-11, it is estimated that the average monthly income of the mainland residents of the Mainland China (border) is about 10,000 RMB, which exceeds the average outbound rate of mainland residents of China.
There is a case that the problem of “a trap of 20,000 dollars per capita” may be raised in China’s economic development. However, the urban area of ​​the Zhuhai Delta area has already solved this problem, and it is considered to be similar in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and other areas. Regardless of the political system theory, from the viewpoint of human flows the theory of “a trap of 20,000 dollars per capita” seems to have stopped passing.
 
According to the data of MasterCard, those who live in mainland China predict that 13.4 million people will leave (border), considering that there is a tendency to start traveling abroad when household income exceeds around 15,000 dollars There. Each of the 22 provinces in China has a population size that is unlikely to be one internationally one country. Currently, the regional disparity exceeds 10 times. Therefore, it will be required to respond in detail to analyze mainland China in detail by region.

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