Analysis and Future Considerations on Increasing Chinese Travelers and International Travel & Human Logistics Market (1)➀
Ⅰ It is national income, not the number of foreign guests, that is inferior.
In Japan, there are few bright topics. As a result, the rapid increase in the number of foreign visitors to Japan has become a topic of the public. The Government of Japan set a goal to increase the number of foreign customers to Japan to 40 million by 2020.
The administration policy speech that former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at the National Assembly in 2003 was a symbolic event that tourism was supposed to acquire citizenship again after the war in policy. Tax was able to be used for dignified “play”.
To be accurate, taxes cannot be used for domestic residents to go to “play”, but they use their taxes to get “playing” to residents of other countries.
The idea itself that employment opportunities are created by the personnel movement that people move is not wrong per se. However, unless the income of the resident of the home country increases, the resident of the home country cannot travel. As incomes do not grow, Japanese residents are thinking only to attract travelers. The idea that the Japanese will actively travel on their own will not be born.
Suddenly the number of visitors from mainland China suddenly increased there. Italian ties have gained value as the income of the surrounding countries increases. Evaluation of tourism resources in Japan is the result of enriching the Far East of China, Korea, etc., including the impact of foreign exchange. Rather it is a future task that there is no consciousness that the Japanese are losing its sending power by that amount.
In 2016, Tokyo began to line up with London, Paris, Kyoto to Venice, Okinawa, Hokkaido to Hawaii with foreign customers. However, in national income, Japan has been greatly differentiated from Iceland in the north and Hawaii in the south. For urban residents of the Pearl River Delta, local residents in Japan are being overtaken by income.
International tourism officials are proud to have a surplus in the travel balance, but the balance of current accounts is more important for the country as a whole. It is the world’s top trade export value, the second place is China (mainland), the United States, the import value is the first place, and the second place is the United States, China (mainland). Service trade, income balance (surplus) is the number one in the US, China is the first in deficit in service trade. Ultimately China (mainland) and Japan are ranked first and second in the current account surplus (surplus). s a result, China (mainland) is beginning to see consciousness to effectively utilize Chinese tourists expected from all over the world stage. The Chinese are switching to the idea of using money made by manufacturing in a fun way all over the world.
1 From inbound policy to outbound policy
The Japanese tourism policy after the war was an inbound policy. In order to maintain the hotel which was missed by the occupation forces, “International Tourism Hotel Development Law” was enacted, so that the bathroom was deployed in each room for US person etc. Furthermore, in order to certify guides such as English etc., the “interpreting guidance business law” was enacted. Since the occupation policy was completed in 1952, in order to make it possible for Americans to know travel agencies that can be relieved with confidence, the “traveling business law” was enacted. Thus, in the exhaustion situation after the end of the war, there was only an inbound policy for acquiring foreign currency under the idea that one hundred Japanese living can come by having a single American tourist come.
In 1963, in the year before the Tokyo Olympic Games, foreign currency use for sightseeing purposes was relaxed and it became possible to travel abroad. In 1971 Japan ‘s GDP surpassed West Germany (then) and became second in the world. In this year, the number of Japanese foreign travelers exceeded the number of foreign visitors to Japan. It was also the year of the outbound policy start, and the “travel business law” which strengthened the protection of Japanese resident foreign travelers was enforced. In 1986 against the backdrop of the yen’s appreciation, the “Ten millionon plan” was proposed to increase the number of foreign residents of Japan residents from 5 million to 10 million by 1990. The former Department of Transportation creates videos and pamphlets explaining social criticism and acts prohibited in a foreign country as a countermeasure for foreigners of Japanese residents traveling abroad, screening in airplanes, showing guidebooks And so on.
After the collapse of the bubble economy, while the Japanese economy is struggling, the Chinese economy has made remarkable progress, and in 2009 it surpassed Japan by the GDP and became the second largest in the world. In 2016, the GDP of China (mainland) doubled from Japan’s GDP.
Tourism destinations around the world are strengthening the recognition that the future of the area is dependent on the attraction of Chinese tourists. At the same time, in Japan, as with just after the end of the war, in policy, only inbounds were discussed.
2 Background of Sharp Increase in Visitors to Japan – MERS in addition to Nuclear Power Accident and Senkaku Islands Conflict –
As stated in the preamble of the Basic Law for Promotion of Tourism Promotion, the situation where the number of customers outside Japan has not been suitable for a long time as compared to the status of Japan in the international community lasted long. However, the number of foreign visitors to Japan, which was approximately 5.2 million in 2003, increased by approximately 20 million to 20 million in 2016 (Table 1-2). The reason is largely due to the increase in the number of visitors from the Far Eastern region, which increased to about 17.5 million people during the same period, among which the number of visits from Mainland China increased to about 6.3 million people. It is the result of enriching the Far East region in the vicinity of Japan.
Based on 2010 as a reference, the increase in the number of travels in the world increases by 25% in 2015 (Table 1-3). The biggest factor is that the number of trips to the whole world from mainland China has doubled rapidly. Thanks to that, the number of foreign visitors to Japan as well as the United States and others has increased sharply. By expressing words in different ways, the number of passengers in the short haul that had been low in proportion among visitors to Japan has increased.
Meanwhile, in the past 12 years, the impact of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was significant, greatly reducing the number of visitors to Japan from all regions of the world. It was salvation that it was as short as about 2 years to recover to the original level. Although the number of visits to Japan increased thereafter, the number of visitors from mainland China limited again in 2013 (Table 1-2 shaded area). Visitors to Japan from other regions are increasing and the number of travelers outside mainland China (border) also increases, so special factors between Japan and China are causing. A series of conflicts that originated from the Japanese government implementing nationalization of the Senkaku Islands in September 2012 greatly influenced. As a result, it recovered later, conversely the rapid increase in visits to Japan compared to the United States etc. which continued to increase steadily became a serious problem.
Furthermore, we can not ignore the influence of the change in the tourism situation of other countries on mainland Chinese customers as a factor of the surge which we gave to Japan. In 2015, Korea was the largest destination of residents of mainland China, but the China Travel Agency analyzed that Korean visitors decreased due to the MERS trouble (Table 2-28) and the destination was changed to Japan ing.
Ⅱ The meaning of exceeding the border etc. in Human Logistics and tourism
1 Based on the amount base and on The number of people base
Table 1-4 summarizes cross-border human resources and sightseeing activities in the world on a value basis and number of people. Since the “tourism” activity is centered on the subjective concept of sightseeing, it is difficult to grasp objectively and it is forced to converge to grasp the movement of humans including business activities. Although it is impossible to make statistics of LPO (Leisure Purpose Trips) sometimes, UNWTO adopts AP because international comparison is difficult unless it is used with AP (All Purpose Trips). Therefore, I believe that “people flow” not limited to the tourism concept “travel for” enjoyment “is proper as a token. In UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization), leaving home for more than 24 hours (using the phrase “tourist”, if less than 24 hours, using the word “excursionist”, together with “visitor” It is customary), and it counts up the number returned to the original place of residence within 365 days. It is usual not to include those who exceed 365 days as “migrant” in “visitor”.
Also, in totaling on a value basis, if the “tourism” activity is separated into “passenger transport” and the other “travel” and the transportation balance is included (tourism balance) and not included (travel balance Also, you must keep in mind that there are. Even with the transportation balance, the balance of international aviation is large, and even in comparison with the travel balance, it is a non-negligible proportion which accounts for 1 to 30% of the total in major countries. Some countries have transportation revenues exceeding travel revenue as in Ireland (Table 1-5). In the case of Japan, in recent years the shipping ratio has decreased with receipt and increased with payment. The increase in the number of foreign visitors to Japan may be affected.
2 International Human Logistics of Political Concept
Regarding “international” activities, attention must be paid to the handling of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan etc. since the concept of border includes political judgment. In some cases, like the country, region, use expressions differently.There are also cases where it is not included in the international passenger statistics due to the policies of the statistic creator like land movement between Malaysia and Singapore, and land movement from China to Vietnam.
In Russia, processing is done not including statistics on the number of human flows with the former Soviet Union countries and Eastern European countries.
It is very different from statistical data of UNWTO.
The handling of nationality is similarly complicated. For long-term residents and those with permanent residence rights, it is usual to handle the same handling as their own citizens for statistical processing. Unconditionally we do not use expressions such as foreigners and Japanese. Place of residence, place of issue of travel documents etc are used.
Inbound and outbound are classifications based on the place of residence, not classification by nationality.
Even under such restrictions, we can recognize the trend of sightseeing in the global cross-border roughly. In international travel revenues and expenditure by UNWTO data, although the air passenger transport activity is not included, the US and mainland China stand out.
On an overview based on the number of people (number of trips involving accommodation), the number of departing people and expenditure affected by the population size roughly agree. The number of visitors does not match income.
Income is affected by mainland Chinese customers including day excursionist.
In any case, Japan, which has always been ranked in top international travel expenditure, has dropped out of the top ten since 2011 and gradually lowered its ranking.
３ international “tourist” arrival number
The number of arrivals of international “tourist” (visitors of one night or more) has increased from 25 million in 1950 to 1.186 million in 2015.
First is the number of “international” tourist arrivals. “Arrival” number may arrive in more than one country on one trip (trip). Therefore it is reasonable to compare the number of hours stayed and the number of nights (“nights”). However, it is difficult to compile.
The basic concept of “sightseeing” can not help being more convenient than taking statistics. It is no use at present as it is possible to process according to the “temporal rule of 24 hours / 365 days” in terms of location and temporal rules.
Looking at the trends in the upper ranking of the number of international travelers arriving at UNWTO (Table 1-7), the order has remained almost unchanged in recent years. Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, etc. are lowering their rankings as Mexico is boosting their rankings. There is no big change. Western European countries that have neighborhoods with high income levels and high population are always in the best ten. Regarding the Russia, since the handling of the former Soviet Union and the Eastern European countries was not unified, it seems that the real will be further ranked higher.
In major European countries, the number of arriving passengers classified as international is increased by interacting with each other. The number of passengers arriving in Mexico is increasing because the number of arrivals from the United States is increasing. It seems that VFR (Visit Family & Relatives) of Hispanic Americans contributes. The number of arrivals in neighboring Asian countries will increase if the number of people living in China (Border) leaving (border) (Table 1-8) increases dramatically. Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia etc are expected to enter the best ten.
Each country tends to be less interested in statistics on the number of departing (border) people. Although it is possible to grasp the departure, it will take time to classify the departure destination etc. As in Canada, it is an exception to aggregate day trips with the United States by cars and present them.
It can only be grasped by the estimated value. Tables 1-8 compare the figures for 2014 on the premise of those circumstances.
If the population size is not large, the number of departing (border) people will not become large. Mainland China, the United States, Russia are representative examples. The exception is European countries where it is easy to move from adjacent areas. Japan has a population of 120 million, followed by Mexico, but the number of departing people is sluggish (16.1 million in 2015), and in 2015 it is reversed to South Korea (19.31 million) by the number of departure Has been done.
4 International travel budget
According to “UNWTO Tourism Highlights 2016 Edition”, the international travel revenue at the destination has increased from US $ 2 billion in 1950 to US $ 1.6 trillion by 2015 (Table 1-5).
In countries called traveling powers of the world, receipts and payments are balanced and seven countries are ranked in the top 10 countries by 2014 figures. Among them, mainland China in terms of payment and the United States in terms of receipt stand out. Both Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Australia also pay and receive takeover positions in the world travel market. Looking at other countries with larger receipts, they are Spain, Macao and Thailand. Although Spain has not entered the best ten in payment amount, it is spending as much as Japan, which has a large population size. (Tables 1-10 and 1-11).
Looking at the difference in the travel balance, the change in the status of Japan stands out noticeably with the rise of China. European developed countries do not see any change like Japan. Spain, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Portugal, etc. among overcountry countries are playing a domestic tourist destination role in the so-called Europe. The same thing happens in Asia, Macao, Thailand and Malaysia, etc. It is a result that the role of the mainland Chinese customers as a place of acceptance is growing.For the United States, it would be appropriate to conclude that visitors from abroad are occurring on a large scale as a result. Besides business, it is a multinational country, and it seems that the trip called VFR is big.
Also in the commentary by UNWTO, it is desirable to consider multiple indicators in the ranking of the destination of international tourism. When ranking based on the number of arrival of international travelers and international travel revenue which are two main tourism indicators, the balance of income and expenditure in Switzerland, France, Italy, etc is balanced. Visitors also come, but residents of their own countries are also traveling. It is also a reason why the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport advocates two way Tourism.
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Analysis and Future Considerations on Increasing Chinese Travelers and International Travel & Human Logistics Market ⑦
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