Analysis and Future Considerations on Increasing Chinese Travelers and International Travel & Human Logistics Market (1)④
Ⅲ Human Logistics situation in the ASEAN-Pacific region
1 ASEAN People’s Stream in the Fast-Growing Population Power Region
We compared the per capita GDP growth between ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand from 2003 to 2015. The developed countries New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and Brunei have achieved growth rates that exceed the US and Japan. Other ASEAN countries have achieved rapid economic growth, including Vietnam, but the problem of the so-called “trade in middle-income countries” is the future issue.
In ASEAN countries, neighboring countries are enhancing human flows effect mutually in a form different from that of Europe. The majority of Europe is land-tracking and they are moving domestically and overseas mutually, but the ASEAN countries are closely moving land, sea and sky across the sea. Unlike in Europe, many countries with large population size such as the Philippines are mainly located in Indonesia, so even if income per capita is low, the total human flows will be comparable to that of Europe.
As mentioned above, as for the population size of ASEAN countries etc., all major countries except New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and Malaysia are population great countries, and it is expected that active human activities will be active from now on.
As an overview of the number of customers visiting outside ASEAN countries and the number of departures, Malaysia and Singapore are also internationally high in numbers excluding the number of land movements between the two countries. Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam with high population are internationally low levels, but the growth rate of GDP per capita (nominal) is large, it is expected that the number of foreign travelers will increase, absolute number of trips to Japan You can expect an increase in the number of people. Although Thailand is in a low level in the departure rate, it has reached the international standard beyond Japan in terms of accommodation acceptance rate and international travel revenue receipt, and ranked high in international travel revenue.
On the overview of the human flows within the ASEAN countries, weights of interregional migration in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia are high. This figure is even more so since the number of land moves between Singapore and Malaysia is not included. According to the data of the Japanese government tourist office, the number of departures for Malaysian residents is 4521 million (Source: Tourism Economics), including day trips to Singapore by 2011, which is a phenomenal figure.
Regarding the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, the mainland of China is the number one in the humanitarian partner country. Though exceptionally the number of trips to leave Thailand is over and Malaysia exceeds China, it will be reversed either way. In Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, too, the human flows with China are the areas that follow, and as of 2013 Japan has barely exceeded China in terms of the number of visitors from Thailand, but 3 minutes for visits to Thailand Of 1 or less.
When comparing the number of guests by city in 2013, Bangkok in the densely populated ASEAN ranks first in ranking over London, Singapore and Kurlanpur are also within 10th place. As for expenditure, ASEAN countries Singapore, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur are ranked second after London, New York, Paris.
2 Casino developed countries · Singapore (Star Port) and China
Table 3-5 shows the trends in per capita GDP among Asian developed countries. Although there are restrictions on the conversion to US dollars, Singapore and Australia are ranked up and they have entered the best ten. Meanwhile, Japan has lowered its ranking since dropping out of Best Ten in 2003, and Singapore is 1.6 times that of Japan. Abenomic effect of depreciation of the yen affects overseas travel, Japan is the same level as Brunei as seen from ASEAN and the Pacific countries, especially in Japan and the region there is a cheap feeling.
Amid such circumstances, Japan has adopted Singapore as a model, and enacted the Specific Complex Tourism Facility Region Improvement Law. The casino operation is attracting attention and consider the contribution of casinos in Singapore to international travel.
Passengers arriving in Singapore have increased significantly from 2011 to 2015. Except for Japan and Taiwan, we have doubled the number of international arrival passengers at short halls, especially China and Vietnam, which is a phenomenal growth of more than 10 times. Singapore is an island country about Awaji Island, and since there is no domestic line, it can be said that it is an international line, but roads, railways and water transport are used as daily routes with neighboring countries. The relationship with Malaysia was a British colony, and in 1920 ‘s a railroad road combined bridge was being used. In 1996 a second bridge was also bridged. In the future two more railroad bridges are planned. Under these circumstances, passengers visiting Singapore by means of land use are being incorporated into daily life, not being recognized as international arrival passengers, but being excluded from statistics. Therefore it would be safe to judge that international passengers have arrived in Singapore over apparent numbers.
It is a relationship between Singapore casino and travel. There is no doubt that international arrival passengers are making steady progress , which has a positive effect on the economy of Singapore. The Singapore government recognized the casino as so-called IR (Integrated Resorts) in 2005, and it is operated in two places since 2010. Casino revenue is stagnant at peak of 2011, not necessarily rising in proportion to the economic situation in Singapore. Casino News Daily As Casino News Daily 2014 November 7, the casino guest preferred “to enjoy the magnificent infinity pool” rather than “gambling activities” as “Is the thriving tourism industry beneficial to the growth of the gambling sector?” Even though it consumes 500 dollars overnight, high-priced consumers decline 34% of revenue in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the same period last year, casino revenue is 352 mililions US $ this time of 2014 , 5.9% lower than the previous year. The number of guests in Mainland China resident has declined (29%), and the reason is that it reports “Mainly of the actions of the Chinese President towards limiting corruption and the troubles with the visa approvals.” Here also the same situation as Macao (the political influence of mainland China) is explained.
3 Trends in Asian Countries including ASEAN – Increasing People in People ~
Until the Second World War, the ASEAN countries were colonies of Britain, France, the United States and the Ranza. Due to this influence, there are relatively many visitors from the UK to Malaysia, Singapore, and from France to Vietnam. There are many visitors from the United States to the Philippines and Vietnam (Table 3-8). Many refugees from Vietnam cross the United States. Vietnamese Americans who live in Orange County, California (Little Saigon) visit for VFR purposes.
The history of immigration from China is even older than the colony. Even now, it is said that there are 10,000,000 people in Indonesia, for example, Chinese who is said to be even 1.5 million in Vietnam. The difference in history appears as the difference between the number of exchanges with Japan and China. The number of visitors from Asian countries such as ASEAN countries is 2 to 3 times more in China than in Japan (Table 3-3), and the trend is stronger with time. As mentioned earlier, the number of visits from ASEAN countries from Japan and China is completely exceeded in all countries from China. Rather, the number of visitors from Japan is decreasing, so the relationship between ASEAN countries and Japan is not bidirectional. Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar are all neighboring countries, and there are also people who do not appear in statistics through ethnic minorities. In Vietnam, Chinese residents entering from the land are not entering the entry statistics. In Thailand exceptionally, the number of visits to Japan has exceeded the number of visits, but the difference has shrunk, and the inversion is inevitable.
Despite the problems of the Spratly Spirit Islands becoming an international problem, neighboring countries have more active human activities than Japan in relation to China. The rapid increase of cruise customers of mainland residents of Mainland, Korea, is becoming a topic, but increasing the number of South China Sea cruise customers will be a big topic.
The same trend is also seen in the number of visits and numbers of visits not only from Asian countries but from major European countries and countries. On the contrary, it means that the visitors to Europe and the developed countries are not visiting Japan more than the trend of the world.
4 Strengthening human flows with Australia, New Zealand ~ ASEAN and China ~
Australia and New Zealand are members of the Commonwealth and have signed the Pacific Security Treaty with the United States in three countries. Therefore, not only will Australia and New Zealand become partners with each other, Britain and the United States will also enter the top five countries in both inbound and outbound. In addition, inbound, the number of residents of mainland China has become higher than those of the United Kingdom and Japan in both Australia and New Zealand. Especially in New Zealand it is the first. In the case of outbound, Australia has come to be connected with ASEAN countries, Indonesia is No. 1. In New Zealand, China is becoming the top country to visit (Table 3-8).
Comparing Japan and Australia with the ASEAN countries, Indonesia is an exception, Australia exceeds Japan in exchange with Singapore and Malaysia. Economic growth tends to strengthen ties with Australia, which is more geographically closer, reflecting the greater economic growth of Australia than Japan (Table 3-11).
Currently both European immigrants are the main residents, the lifestyle is more Western than the Asians, and the traveling behavior is similar in many cases. Domestic trips are three to four per citizen, and overseas trips are similar from 0.4 to 0.5 times a year. Domestic trip accompanied by accommodation is the same period as 3 to 4 nights. Day trips can not be compared without New Zealand data, but Australian residents are doing less than 10 times a year.
When Japan envisioned the overseas travel doubling plan (ten millionon plan) in 1986, Australia’s departure rate was 10%, which was the target. At present, the model Australia has more than tripled. At the time of creation of the Ten millionon plan, Japan was more than Australia in per capita GDP, twice that of New Zealand. Since then Japan has been overtaken in Australia in 2005 and New Zealand in 2013, it is impossible to set the goal of exit rate in these countries. The average consumption during traveling abroad, compared to Australia’s close to 3000 dollars per capita, the fact that New Zealand residents average only 500 dollars may reflect the difference in income. The amount of money consumed by one foreigner is also well above the US $ 2400 in Australia and 1400 US $ in New Zealand.
Human flows in Japan and China and in Australia and New Zealand have similar trends as in ASEAN countries. Visitors from Japan are digging into the top five places, but the number from mainland China far exceeds it. If the economic growth of the ASEAN countries continues, visitors from the more populous ASEAN countries will become the top places. In addition, China has been increasing to the top five as a place for New Zealand residents to visit. The shadow of Japan will gradually become thinner.
The ski level in Australia is around 400,000, and the number of people in the sun return is extremely small (Table 3-12). Unlike Japan, taking actions to enjoy skiing for a long period of time, many of them are long-term in excess of 100 days, and the behavior style also accounts for nearly 60% of the trip (Table 3-13, 3-14). In addition, international visitors for skiing are from mainland China and ASEAN countries in the Northern Hemisphere where the season is opposite (Table 3-15), and high income earners in each country are getting together.
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