Analysis and Future Considerations on Increasing Chinese Travelers and International Travel & Human Logistics Market ⑥
Ⅴ Competition in the U.S. over the status of the world’s best travel market
1 Chinese Travel Market Towards the US Travel Market
After the Second World War consistently the world’s travel market was centered around the Americans. The Marshall Plan that contributed to the reconstruction of Europe was a policy to send out US tourists and was an outbound policy. The romantic road that Germany created was also a policy to recall US soldiers once stationed as tourists. As already mentioned, the Japanese tourism policy taken after the end of the war was a policy to attract rice. Since the aircraft was owned only in the United States, the United States used a Japanese airport to build a network from Southeast Asia to the Pacific, and Japanese also utilized it. It is a reason why there is a departure and arrival slot at Narita, which allows us to route from Asia to the Asia via the United States from Japan. In the world, the hotel is a US style hotel, the travel expenses are paid by traveler’s check credit card denominated in dollars, the communication is formed in the form of international telephone / internet in English, a human-community society beyond today’s border was formed It will not be an exaggeration to say.
The top of the human outflow department is moving partly from the United States to China. In the inbound sector, although the number of people and the amount of money are currently higher than China, the average income of mainland residents of China is now US $ 13 thousand (around 60% now) of Chile and Panama, Since the charm as a sightseeing spot also increases as economic power increases, it is fully conceivable to overtake the United States. Cultural resources are abundant and many natural resources are unknown. As 20% of the world will enrich, it is commonplace for more travelers to enter and leave. The GDP has a large discrepancy between the nominal value and the real value, but it seems that the nominal value is closer to the real feeling when considering expenditure at the travel destination.
Based on the announcement of UNWTO, the United States is the best in tourism revenue in the world, but the number of arrivals is France the best in the world. French countries, including day trip travelers, are attracting more than 200 million travelers. Virtually the United States has the largest income as much as the country has, and the number of tourists in the world is probably the best, but the French country in Europe is advantageous in terms of statistics. There is a limit to the way of thinking itself of totaling on the premise of a border. Therefore, in recent years, there are more cases to discuss in cities such as London, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo and depending on the purpose of travel (Holiday, VFR, Business, etc.).
2 Human logistics matrix between North America Three Kingdoms (rice accounting for rice) ~ Meaning of Oversea ~
A total of 20,728 US dollars (billions) of GDP (nominal) has been created in a total of 481 million people (the United Nations in 2015) totaling the population of the United States, Canada and Mexico. Between the three continents of continental North American continent with this huge population, economy, big human flows are occurring differently from Europe and ASEAN. Mexico adjacent to the United States is about the same in terms of population size with Japan, but its nominal GDP is almost the same as GDP in Canada, and per capita nominal GDP is almost the same as per capita GDP per capita in China.
Among the three North American countries, the weight of day trip travelers is extremely high. The day-to-day rate by car is about 55% for Canadian residents and about 35% for US residents (Table 5-2) Looking at the human-stream between the United States and Canada, the movement of Canadian residents is It has twice the scale. Because the population of Canada is large in the south side.
The United States has concluded a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada and Mexico and is permitted to enter the country for short-term labor to the extent that mutual satisfy certain conditions. In addition, entry from Mexico to the United States is different from entering the border zone from the border to 25 miles and then entering the inland section (Interior). Monthly tourism statistics (Monthly Tourism Statistics) used only the number of inland arrivals as the number of US immigrants until 2005. From 2006 until 2009, the total number of immigrants, including those entering the border zone, will be listed together, and after 2010 only the total number of immigrants will be counted (Table 5-3). Therefore, the number of immigrants from Mexico has not been continuous since 2005 and 2006 and should be kept in mind to analyze human flows from statistics.
“Tables 5-4 and 5-5” (abbreviation) are statistics of the 1990s. According to the comment by the US Traffic Statistics Bureau on changes from 1990 to 1999, about 300 million people traveled between the United States and the US in 1999. 80% of them are day trips, 20% are guests, mostly by private cars, walks, aircraft etc. A day trip to Canada was 66% and 87% to Mexico was a day trip. 66% of Canadian residents visit the US for pleasure purposes, 7% for business purposes, and 11% for VFR purposes. The purpose of visiting US residents to Canada is the same, but it does not apply to Mexico. Day trips shrank dramatically from 1990 and 76 million trips were 58 million trips. The reason is the exchange rate of the dollar depreciating, and it affected the movement of cars most strongly. Conversely Canadian aircraft travel increased. In contrast to the US-U.S relationship, the relationship between rice and black ink increased by 19%. Meanwhile, the visit – day trip to the US increased by 21% from 1990 to 1999, while the trip to the U.S. visit to the US increased by 17%. Three-quarters of the gap between rice and black is land movement, and 800,000 people travel from Mexico to the United States a day. 16% is on foot and the rest enters the United States by private car, 250,000 private cars a day pass. Accommodation trips are contrasting between US and U.S. Despite the differences in population, in 2000, Americans had more than a million trips than Canadians, but 9 million more trips than Mexicans.
As an international passenger with accommodation, there are 2300 to 26 million people from the United States to Mexico, 17 million people from Mexico to the United States, about 11.5 million people from the United States to Canada, from the Canada to the United States from Canada There are 23 million people from Canada, 1.9 million people in Mexico and 170,000 people from Mexico to Canada. In addition to the personnel accompanying this stay, there are 46 million to 48 million people from the United States to Mexico, 7 million people from the United States to Canada, 3,300 to 34 million people from Canada to the United States (Table 5 -6). The number of day-trips from Mexico to the United States is about 70 million people based on the OECD data and others, but it was a huge amount of 1.703 million people in 1999 figures.
In the international travel statistics of the United States, foreign customers excluding Canada and Mexico are literally “Oversea passenger”. Illegal immigrants from Mexico, Central and South America are becoming politicized. Under such circumstances where such large scale activities are carried out in the regular human flows, it is inevitable to adopt the present circumstantial measures.
The trips between the three countries are limited to familiar ones, the Canadian dollar against the US dollar is affected by 2015, and the number of Canadian exit trips has decreased by 3.7%. This is because the number of departure trips to other destinations increased by 10% in the same year 2014, whereas the departure trip from the US side border was reduced by 10%.
3 Travel Status of US Residents
(1) Situation of Visitors in the US – Positioning of Customers in Mainland China –
In 2015 the mainland residents of China were ranked first in the amount of foreign guests consumption. The average consumption of one main trip of mainland China continues to increase to about 2,600 dollars in 2008, about 6100 dollars in 2011, about 13,500 dollars in 2015. Visitors from Japan are the fourth in both accommodation and consumption. In terms of per capita consumption it is the second largest after China. However, for Japanese residents, about 1.5 million people in Hawaii and about 800,000 people in Guam, more than half of them are not travelers to the continent (Table 5-8). As a continental visitor, it is lower than Brazil and China. As a result, the ratings of Japanese tourists in the continental United States will not be elevated any more. The number of Japanese living in Hawaii is 1.6 million (2010 census) during the population of 1.42 million (2014 years) in the state of Hawaii, the second place is 270,000 in California, the third place 38 thousand in New York State It is more than people, which leads to a large number of Japanese travelers in Hawaii.
Table 5-10 also shows the number of bed nights in New York City, one of the largest destinations in the United States. Canada, Mexico and other regions with many US immigrants are also among the top in New York. The exception is Japan, and Japanese resident in the center of Hawaii and Guam does not appear in the top number of New York guests. There are 58.5 million people in total in New York City every year, of which about 20%, 12.5 million people are residents outside of the United States. It can be understood that the hotel occupancy rate rises and the hotel rate gets higher (Table 5-12).
The US Tourism Association predicts that in 2021, the number of Chinese mainland customers will be 5.7 million under the criteria of a new human stream within “CHINA: SUMMARY INBOUND TRAVEL MARKET PROFILE (2015)”. The mainland Chinese customers in 2015 have increased to 2.59 million people and the receipts are US $ 30.2 billion. US share of the mainland resident’s long-distance international travelers 16.66 million people is 15.6%, which is considered a promising market in the future.
Table 5-10 shows the number of accommodations in New York City. Canada, Mexico and other areas with many US arrivals are also in the upper rank of New York City ‘s bed nights. The exception is Japan, and Japanese resident in the center of Hawaii and Guam does not appear in the top number of New York guests. In addition, there are 58.5 million people in total in New York City per year, of which approximately 20% of 12.5 million people are residents outside the US (Table 5-11). It can be understood that the hotel occupancy rate rises and the hotel rate gets higher (Table 5-12).
(2) Traveling abroad for US residents
92% of Canadian residents are traveling overseas for traveling. Even residents of the United States, who are said not to travel abroad, 21% more than Japanese average (13%) will be traveling abroad. Furthermore, when counting day trips, half of Americans with a large area are traveling abroad once a year. According to the US government data, visits to Mexico and Canada are different, mainly Europe such as the UK and the Caribbean countries such as the Dominican Republic etc. 885 thousand people are leaving Japan in 2015 (the Japanese government There are major deviations due to the difference between the method and the method with the tourism department of 1,300,000). In 2016 it was 1.24 million (preliminary figures of the Japanese government tourist office).
➀ VFR to raise the export rate
According to the “US Department of Commerce International Trade Administration / Industry & Analysis” conducted by the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), 53% of US resident (US citizens) (Vacation / holiday). Next, VFR accounts for a large proportion of 27%, and the business purpose is 10%. VFR is equivalent to Japan’s homecoming, etc. It is a large scale unique to immigrant society.
15% of US respondents recognize themselves as Hispanic, 16% Asian, 8% Black and 2% American Indian / Alaskan Native or Hawaiian Islander. 59% of US residents who visited Asia in 2014 recognized themselves as Asian and 52% of US resident who visited South America recognized Hispanic. The proportion of VFR will be large for travel purposes.
② Major cities and local as seen in the exit rate
The port to which the US resident departs and the airport is 76% in the top 10 cities including New York, Miami, Atlanta. According to the Ministry of Commerce statistics, the average income of foreign travelers in the US is US $ 125,000, so it is considered that there are many large cities residents. Likewise, Japan’s departure rate (2015) is concentrated in urban areas as 25.9% in Tokyo, 19.5% in Kanagawa, 15.7% in Chiba, 14.5% in Osaka, 14.4% in Aichi, 14.3% in Hyogo and 14.2% in Kyoto. Other prefectures were lower than the average of 13% in Japan, the bottom was 2.8% in Aomori, 3.1% in Akita, 3.3% in Iwate and 3.8% in Kagoshima, in general regardless of the country, income was affected by foreign travel You know that there is.
③ Americans looking at preparations for travel
According to the US Department of Commerce Materials, US resident people use airline information (52%) over the net. It is like using the information of JR in Japan. That’s why aviation is familiar. The travel plan also draws attention from 70 to 100 days ago. The average number of international trips is 2.6. The proportion of solo travel alone is also high, with an average traveling by 1.6 people. The trip is also 17 days long and it is long from the Japanese. The card usage rate is 50% lower than I thought. There are 1.8 places to visit and it seems that it will not turn around here and there. The average expenditure per person is about 1,500 US dollars, of which the air fare is the majority of 1,200 US dollars, with the decision of traveling still like air fares. Those who make use of an online travel company are 32%, those who use a conventional travel company 17%, those who reserve direct airlines 39%, those who use packaged tours 13%. Traveling without using benefits such as mileage and long ticket sale tickets exceeds 81%. 78% traveling in economy and Coach class. Travel insurance coverage rate is 30%. Japanese people, including questions, are surprised at the result that 12% of travelers are receiving health checks in advance. The average age is 45.0 years. The average household income is $ 125,000. A Japanese who does not grow national income should not be able to travel abroad.
(3) Huge US domestic market and future in the future
“Table 5-14” (abbreviated) compares domestic travel markets by country. In the comparison of gross expenditure, the United States is the next largest followed by China with the largest population. Compared with the high rate of Canadian departure, the United States has many places to go to the country.
Even the expenditure per capita is growing in the Far East. Especially, China’s growth rate stands out. In addition, the National Tourist Association of China estimated that domestic travel, which was 2.957 billion in 2012, is 4.48 billion people in 2016, income is 3.8 trillion yuan, far exceeding 250 million people in the outbound country market . The number of times per capita per person has increased from 2.18 times on average to 3.18 times.
The size of domestic aviation in the United States is one order of magnitude larger than Japan in terms of the number of transport miles. On the contrary, since Japan’s railway transport volume is 231 million miles in FY2005, we will have an additional 2.7 times the combined volume of JR private railway and others, with only US domestic airline. It is easy to understand that it is even larger than that of transport by car. Even though the sky liberalization · open sky policy is being implemented, domestic aviation regulates transportation of foreign aircraft in the United States due to cabotage regulations. As a result, US companies can use international huge domestic air market as weapons. In fact, American airline companies have expanded the network to the whole world by code share (joint operation).
The same can be said about China. China already has a domestic aviation market nearly six times as large as Japan. As both countries will overtake the US, Japanese airline companies can not help but think further collaboration with a huge Chinese airline company. In that case, Japan’s land-based passenger transport companies, which can not cooperate with Chinese airlines, will lag far behind, so cooperation with the Chinese-based human-style smartphones, which is expected to develop internationally, will be indispensable.